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US housing figures

Friday, January 18, 2008

The negative sentiment in stocks continues. Fixed Income still looks strong.


Overnight News Bullets

  • SZ ZEW Survey Expectations (Jan) out at -32.7 vs. -29.7 prior.

  • E-Z Trade Balance (Nov) 2.6B vs. 5.5B expected.

  • E-Z Construction Output sa MoM (Nov) out at -0.8% vs. 2.4% expected.

  • CA Int’l Securities Transactions (Nov) out at –C$4.840 vs. C$1.500 expected.

  • US Housing Starts (Dec) out at 1006K vs. 1145K expected.

  • US Building Permits (Dec) out at 1068K vs. 1135K expected.

  • US Initial Jobless Claims out at 301K vs. 331K expected.

  • US Continuing Claims out at 2751K vs. 2705K expected.

  • Bernanke Testifying: Recognizing “sharp housing contraction”, but stating that the US economy is “extraordinarily resilent” and showing “inherent strength”

  • NZ Retail Sales MoM (Nov) out at 2.0% vs. 0.7% expected.

  • Australian Import/Export Price Index QoQ (4Q) out at 0.2%/-0.6% vs. -0.8%/-3.0% prior.

  • Japanese Consumer Confidence (Dec) out at 38.3 vs. 38.5 expected.

  • Japanese Consumer Confidence Households (Dec) out at 38.0 vs. 38.2 expected.

  • Japaense Nationwide Dept. Sales YoY (Dec) out at -2.3 vs. 0.9%


Markets

  • FX: USD TWI edging higher, JPY weakening slightly. GBP ready to continue the downtrend?

  • Fixed Income: Long-dated still going higher. STIR Futures seeing a 44% chance of 3.5% Feds Funds Rate by the 30th of Jan. That would probably imply a surprise cut of 25 bps. plus the “normal” 50 bps.

  • Stocks: Europe down by 1%, US down by 2-3%. Nikkei up by 0.56%

  • Commodities: Crude now trading at 90. Gold at 878, Silver at 15.84.


O/N Data Heat map:

Data heat map


Calendar

Today's Highlights:


Time (GMT) Region Release Consensus
09:30UK Retail Sales MoM/YoY (DEC) 0.2% / 3.4%
13:00US FED’s Lacker speaks on Economic Outlook
13:30CA Manufacturing Shipments (NOV) 0.50%
15:00US University of Michigan Confidence (JAN) 74.5
15:00US Leading Indicators (DEC) -0.10%
18:00US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (JAN) Prior 1744


This and Next Week’s Highlights:


Date Region Release
21-JanUK Rightmove House Price, Pucblic Finances and Net Borrowing, M4 Money Supply
21-JanAU Producer Price Index, New Motor Vehicle Sales
21-JanCA Wholesale Sales
21-JanSZ SNB Monthly Statistical Bulletin, Producer and Import Prices
22-JanSZ Adjusted Retail Sales
22-JanJN BoJ Target Rate, Supermarket Sales, BoJ Monthly Report, Machine Tool Orders
22-JanCA Retail Sales, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
22-JanUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, ABC Consumer Confidence
22-JanAU Westpac Leading Index, Consumer Prices


What's going on?

  • While Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled his green light to a fiscal stimulus, President Bush has communicated a plan of $150B economic stimulus package that would include tax breaks and rebates.

  • Larger-than-expected losses from Merrill Lynch and Washington Mutual and disappointing housing figures continued to dampen the sentiment in the US, with stocks plunging into worst 3-day decline since 2002.

  • Consistent and consecutive actions to increase bank reserves in China to cool off the world’s fastest growing economy start to reflect on yuan, which is now headed for a 6th weekly gain against the dollar. Appreciating yuan will be of key importance as China battles with rising inflation, which has climbed to 6.9%.


FX

Has the EUR gotten too far ahead of itself?

fx graph

Fx trading strategies

FX Trading Strategies


Pair Supp. Resis. Comments
EURUSD 1.4571.4785In the short term, a break of support will target the mid-point lows from the double top at 1.4310, stop at 1.4720. In the mid-term play the double top!. A close below DT mid-point lows will target 1.3690. We recommend applying options.

Posted by MOHAMED SAID at 1:36 AM  

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