Free forex: US housing figures

US housing figures

The negative sentiment in stocks continues. Fixed Income still looks strong.

SZ ZEW Survey Expectations (Jan) out at -32.7 vs. -29.7 prior.
E-Z Trade Balance (Nov) 2.6B vs. 5.5B expected.
E-Z Construction Output sa MoM (Nov) out at -0.8% vs. 2.4% expected.
CA Int’l Securities Transactions (Nov) out at –C$4.840 vs. C$1.500 expected.
US Housing Starts (Dec) out at 1006K vs. 1145K expected.
US Building Permits (Dec) out at 1068K vs. 1135K expected.
US Initial Jobless Claims out at 301K vs. 331K expected.
US Continuing Claims out at 2751K vs. 2705K expected.
Bernanke Testifying: Recognizing “sharp housing contraction”, but stating that the US economy is “extraordinarily resilent” and showing “inherent strength”
NZ Retail Sales MoM (Nov) out at 2.0% vs. 0.7% expected.
Australian Import/Export Price Index QoQ (4Q) out at 0.2%/-0.6% vs. -0.8%/-3.0% prior.
Japanese Consumer Confidence (Dec) out at 38.3 vs. 38.5 expected.
Japanese Consumer Confidence Households (Dec) out at 38.0 vs. 38.2 expected.
Japaense Nationwide Dept. Sales YoY (Dec) out at -2.3 vs. 0.9%

FX: USD TWI edging higher, JPY weakening slightly. GBP ready to continue the downtrend?
Fixed Income: Long-dated still going higher. STIR Futures seeing a 44% chance of 3.5% Feds Funds Rate by the 30th of Jan. That would probably imply a surprise cut of 25 bps. plus the “normal” 50 bps.
Stocks: Europe down by 1%, US down by 2-3%. Nikkei up by 0.56%
Commodities: Crude now trading at 90. Gold at 878, Silver at 15.84.

Today's Highlights:


Time (GMT)	Region	Release	Consensus
09:30	UK	Retail Sales MoM/YoY (DEC)	0.2% / 3.4%
13:00	US	FED’s Lacker speaks on Economic Outlook
13:30	CA	Manufacturing Shipments (NOV)	0.50%
15:00	US	University of Michigan Confidence (JAN)	74.5
15:00	US	Leading Indicators (DEC)	-0.10%
18:00	US	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (JAN)	Prior 1744

This and Next Week’s Highlights:


Date	Region	Release
21-Jan	UK	Rightmove House Price, Pucblic Finances and Net Borrowing, M4 Money Supply
21-Jan	AU	Producer Price Index, New Motor Vehicle Sales
21-Jan	CA	Wholesale Sales
21-Jan	SZ	SNB Monthly Statistical Bulletin, Producer and Import Prices
22-Jan	SZ	Adjusted Retail Sales
22-Jan	JN	BoJ Target Rate, Supermarket Sales, BoJ Monthly Report, Machine Tool Orders
22-Jan	CA	Retail Sales, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
22-Jan	US	Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, ABC Consumer Confidence
22-Jan	AU	Westpac Leading Index, Consumer Prices

While Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled his green light to a fiscal stimulus, President Bush has communicated a plan of $150B economic stimulus package that would include tax breaks and rebates.
Larger-than-expected losses from Merrill Lynch and Washington Mutual and disappointing housing figures continued to dampen the sentiment in the US, with stocks plunging into worst 3-day decline since 2002.
Consistent and consecutive actions to increase bank reserves in China to cool off the world’s fastest growing economy start to reflect on yuan, which is now headed for a 6th weekly gain against the dollar. Appreciating yuan will be of key importance as China battles with rising inflation, which has climbed to 6.9%.

Has the EUR gotten too far ahead of itself?

FX Trading Strategies


Pair	Supp.	Resis.	Comments
EURUSD	1.457	1.4785	In the short term, a break of support will target the mid-point lows from the double top at 1.4310, stop at 1.4720. In the mid-term play the double top!. A close below DT mid-point lows will target 1.3690. We recommend applying options.

Posted by Unknown at 1:36 AM