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Dollar down after weak manufacturing
Saturday, February 16, 2008
NEW YORK (AP) - The dollar extended its slide Friday against most major currencies after weak manufacturing data and consumer sentiment drove home Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments about a gloomy economy and the possibility of further interest rate cuts.
Lower interest rates can jump-start a country's economy, but may weigh on its currency as traders transfer funds to countries where they can earn higher returns.
The 15-nation euro rose to $1.4678 Friday from $1.4633, but the dollar jumped higher against the pound. The British currency fell to $1.9603 from $1.9691.
The dollar also slipped to 107.69 Japanese yen from 107.93 yen and dropped to 1.0925 Swiss francs from 1.0973 francs.
A New York Federal Reserve survey showed that manufacturing conditions in the region had deteriorated, while the central bank said that the country's industrial output rose by only 0.1 percent in January. The increase in industrial production was due mostly to higher output at utility companies because of the weather.
A preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence sank in February to a 16-year low.
Bernanke told Congress on Thursday the economy outlook was gloomy and signaled a readiness to keep on lowering a key interest rate to shore things up.
Bernanke also told the Senate Banking Committee that the one-two punch of housing and credit crises has greatly strained the economy. And he forecast sluggish growth in the near term. Bernanke also noted that hiring has slowed and that people are likely to tighten their belts further because of high energy prices and plummeting home values.
In other New York trading, the dollar rose to 1.0091 Canadian dollars from 99.99 Canadian cents.
New York Money Market Rate Indications
New York Money Market Rate Indications
Bankers acceptances at 3:46 p.m. New York time.
1M 3.12
2M 3.10
3M 3.70
6M 2.95
9M 2.88
1Y 2.83
Federal funds: days high 3.15; low 2.93: latest bid 3.00; offered 3.06; prime lending rate at major banks 6.00; broker call loan rate 4.75
Dealer-placed commercial paper
30 days 3.07
60 days 3.05
90 days 3.03
Treasury bills
30 days 2.33-32 dn .120
90 days 2.15-14 dn .080
180 days 2.02-01 dn .020
Moody's yield figures
AAA corps 5.67
US Business Group Cites Ways To Reduce US
Monday, February 11, 2008
US Business Group Cites Ways To Reduce US,EU Regulatory Hurdles
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Increasing transparency and improving data quality are just two actions the U.S. and European Union should take to reduce regulatory obstacles and improve transatlantic trade, the Chamber of Commerce said Monday.
Responding to a joint report by the European Union and U.S. Office of Management and Budget, the business federation said improvements in areas of data quality, transparency, stakeholder input, cost-benefit analysis and the application of sound science would help make business regulations in the two countries more seamless.
"When it comes to protecting consumers and the environment, there is a strong need to reduce the differences between U.S. and EU regulations," said Stan Anderson, chair of the Chamber's Global Regulatory Cooperation Project. "We need to improve the methods of regulating business if we are to mitigate obstacles to trade, investment and economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic."
If the EU and U.S. were to base their regulations on the same core principles, global commerce would benefit greatly, the chamber said in a news release.
The Chamber of Commerce, which represents 3 million companies and organizations, is the world's largest business federation.
US Employment Cost Index-STATS
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
US Employment Cost Index-STATS-Historical
Employment cost index for total compensation, wages and salaries,
and benefit costs, by industry and occupational group. Percent changes
for 3-months ended are seasonally adjusted. Percent changes for 12-
months ended are not seasonally adjusted. R denotes revised.
---CIVILIAN WORKERS---
Compensation Wages/Salaries Benefits
Period 3-Mo 12-Mo 3-Mo 12-Mo 3-Mo 12-Mo
Dec 07 0.8 3.3 0.8 3.4 0.9 3.1
Sep 07 0.8 3.3 0.8 3.3 0.8 3.2
Jun 07 0.9 3.3 0.8 3.4 1.3 3.4
Mar 07 0.8 3.5 1.1 3.6 0.1 3.1
Dec 06 0.9 3.3 0.7 3.2 1.1 3.6
Sep 06 0.9 3.3 0.9 3.2 1.0 3.3
Jun 06 0.9 3.0 0.9 2.8 0.9 3.4
Mar 06 0.6 2.8 0.7 2.7 0.6 3.4
Dec 05 0.8 3.1 0.7 2.6 0.8 4.5
Sep 05 0.7 3.0 0.6 2.3 1.0 5.0
Jun 05 0.7 3.2 0.6 2.5 0.9 5.0
Mar 05 0.9 3.5 0.7 2.5 1.6 5.9
Dec 04 0.7 3.7 0.5 2.4 1.3 6.9
Sep 04 0.9 3.8 0.8 2.5 1.2 6.6
Jun 04 0.9 3.9 0.6 2.5 1.7 7.2
Mar 04 1.1 3.8 0.6 2.5 2.2 6.9
Dec 03 0.8 3.8 0.5 2.9 1.5 6.3
Sep 03 1.0 3.9 0.7 2.9 1.7 6.3
Jun 03 0.9 3.7 0.6 2.7 1.3 6.3
Mar 03 1.2 3.9 1.0 2.9 1.8 6.1
Dec 02 0.9 3.4 0.5 2.9 1.6 5.0
Sep 02 0.8 3.5 0.6 3.1 1.4 4.5
Jun 02 1.0 4.0 0.9 3.5 1.3 5.0
Mar 02 0.9 3.9 0.8 3.5 0.7 4.9
Dec 01 1.0 4.1 0.9 3.7 1.4 5.2
Sep 01 1.0 4.1 0.9 3.6 1.4 5.1
Jun 01 1.0 3.9 0.9 3.7 1.1 4.5
Mar 01 1.1 4.1 1.0 3.8 1.1 4.7
Dec 00 0.9 4.1 0.8 3.8 1.2 4.9
Sep 00 0.9 4.3 0.9 4.0 1.0 5.3
Jun 00 1.0 4.4 1.0 4.0 1.2 5.3
Mar 00 1.2 4.3 1.1 4.0 1.7 5.0
---PRIVATE INDUSTRY---
Compensation Wages/Salaries Benefits
Period 3-Mo 12-Mo 3-Mo 12-Mo 3-Mo 12-Mo
Dec 07 0.8 3.0 0.8 3.3 0.9 2.4
Sep 07 0.8 3.1 0.8 3.4 0.8 2.4
Jun 07 0.9 3.1 0.8 3.3 1.1 2.6
Mar 07 0.6 3.2 1.1 3.6 0.1 2.2
Dec 06 0.8 3.2 0.8 3.2 1.0 3.1
Sep 06 0.9 3.0 0.8 3.0 1.0 2.8
Jun 06 0.9 2.8 0.8 2.8 0.7 2.7
Mar 06 0.6 2.6 0.7 2.4 0.4 3.0
Dec 05 0.8 3.0 0.7 2.5 0.7 4.1
Sep 05 0.7 2.9 0.6 2.3 0.9 4.5
Jun 05 0.6 3.1 0.5 2.5 0.8 4.7
Mar 05 0.9 3.4 0.7 2.4 1.5 5.8
Dec 04 0.7 3.8 0.4 2.4 1.2 6.9
Sep 04 0.9 3.8 0.8 2.6 1.0 6.7
Jun 04 0.9 4.0 0.6 2.6 1.7 7.3
Mar 04 1.1 3.9 0.6 2.6 2.2 7.0
Dec 03 0.8 4.0 0.6 3.0 1.5 6.4
Sep 03 1.1 3.9 0.8 3.0 1.7 6.3
Jun 03 0.8 3.5 0.6 2.6 1.3 6.1
Mar 03 1.4 3.8 1.0 3.0 1.9 6.1
Dec 02 0.8 3.2 0.5 2.7 1.4 4.7
Sep 02 0.6 3.5 0.4 3.1 1.2 4.3
Jun 02 1.1 4.0 0.9 3.6 1.4 5.1
Mar 02 0.9 3.9 0.9 3.5 0.7 4.8
Dec 01 1.1 4.2 0.9 3.8 1.5 5.1
Sep 01 1.0 4.0 0.8 3.5 1.4 4.9
Jun 01 1.0 4.0 0.9 3.8 1.1 4.8
Mar 01 1.1 4.2 1.1 3.8 1.1 5.0
Dec 00 0.9 4.4 0.8 3.9 1.2 5.6
Sep 00 1.1 4.6 0.9 4.1 1.2 6.0
Jun 00 1.1 4.6 1.0 4.1 1.3 5.7
Mar 00 1.3 4.6 1.1 4.2 1.9 5.5
---STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT---
Compensation Wages/Salaries Benefits
Period 3-Mo 12-Mo 3-Mo 12-Mo 3-Mo 12-Mo
Dec 07 0.8 4.1 0.8 3.5 0.9 5.5
Sep 07 0.8 4.3 1.0 3.5 0.7 6.0
Jun 07 1.1 4.8 0.8 3.8 1.7 6.6
Mar 07 1.3 4.6 0.9 3.8 2.1 6.3
Dec 06 1.0 4.1 0.8 3.5 1.4 5.2
Sep 06 1.3 4.1 1.3 3.7 1.4 5.2
Jun 06 1.0 3.8 0.9 3.1 1.3 5.5
Mar 06 0.7 3.7 0.5 2.8 1.1 5.4
Dec 05 1.1 4.1 1.0 3.1 1.3 6.3
Sep 05 0.9 3.9 0.5 2.6 1.6 6.5
Jun 05 0.9 3.5 0.6 2.3 1.4 6.3
Mar 05 1.0 3.6 0.7 2.3 1.6 6.6
Dec 04 0.8 3.5 0.5 2.1 1.5 6.7
Sep 04 0.8 3.4 0.5 2.1 1.6 6.5
Jun 04 0.9 3.4 0.5 1.9 1.8 6.6
Mar 04 0.9 3.3 0.6 2.1 1.6 6.2
Dec 03 0.7 3.3 0.5 2.1 1.3 6.1
Sep 03 0.8 3.7 0.3 2.4 1.9 6.7
Jun 03 0.9 4.1 0.6 3.1 1.3 6.8
Mar 03 0.9 4.2 0.6 3.1 1.5 6.6
Dec 02 1.1 4.1 0.7 3.2 1.8 6.2
Sep 02 1.3 3.7 1.0 3.0 2.1 5.3
Jun 02 0.8 3.6 0.7 3.2 1.1 4.6
Mar 02 0.8 3.9 0.7 3.4 1.0 5.0
Dec 01 0.7 4.2 0.6 3.6 1.0 5.5
Sep 01 1.2 4.4 1.1 3.9 1.6 5.6
Jun 01 1.1 3.6 1.0 3.7 1.4 3.4
Mar 01 1.1 3.3 0.9 3.5 1.3 2.8
Dec 00 1.0 3.0 0.9 3.3 1.0 2.4
Sep 00 0.4 3.3 0.8 3.5 -0.3 2.8
Jun 00 0.8 3.5 0.8 3.7 0.7 3.1
Mar 00 0.9 3.6 0.8 3.8 0.9 3.2
Dollar rebounds after brief falls on woeful ISM data
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar rebounded against the euro and the pound, with the falls in the wake of a woeful survey on US services sector activity proving short-lived on the widely accepted view that the slowdown is not confined to the US.
The US ISM non-manufacturing business activity index tumbled to 41.9 in January from 54.4, confounding forecasts for a much smaller fall to 53.0 and the worst reading since the aftermath of the Sept 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The new composite index -- derived from detailed questions on new orders, employment and so on -- was only a little better, falling to 44.6.
The fall also takes the index way below the 50 level that marks contraction in the sector.
"While today's report is the second major confirmation that the US economy is in recession, the US dollar remains little fazed on the premise that the US slowdown is less likely to be isolated," said Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets.
Earlier today, the PMI index on euro zone services showed the sector close to contraction in January, with the final estimate revised down sharply to 50.6, the weakest level in four and a half years.
The euro fell to a 12-day low against the dollar of 1.4630 usd after short-lived rises in the wake of the US ISM release.
With renewed falls on equity markets and a rise in risk appetite, however, one currency to benefit was the low-yielding yen, often seen as a default safe-haven currency, along with the Swiss franc.
"Renewed declines in equities are expected to drag down risk appetite, which should further weigh on the high yielding currencies against the dollar, leaving dollar/yen as the main dollar pair under pressure," Laidi said.
The market will also be keeping half an eye out for the results in the US primaries later tonight.
London 1550 GMT London 1248 GMT
US dollar
yen 106.85 down from 107.46
sfr 1.1011 down from 1.1026
Euro
usd 1.4644 down from 1.4681
stg 0.7452 down from 0.7459
yen 156.40 down from 157.79
sfr 1.6127 down from 1.6189
Sterling
usd 1.9646 down from 1.9680
yen 209.77 down from 211.48
sfr 2.1628 down from 2.1697
Australian dollar
usd 0.8966 down from 0.9026
stg 0.4565 down from 0.4585
yen 95.77 down from 96.98
US Construction Spending
US Construction Spending-STATS-Historical
Seasonally adjusted annual rate in billions of current dollars. M/M
denotes percent change from previous month. Y/Y denotes percent change
from previous year. Source: U.S. Commerce Department.
TOTAL PRIVATE STATE/LOCAL PUBLIC
CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y
Month Level% chg% chg: Level% chg% chg: Level% chg% chg: Level% chg% chg
Dec 07 1,140.2 -1.1 -2.3: 842.4 -1.0 -6.1: 277.4 -1.5 10.6: 297.8 -1.5 10.1
Nov 07 1,153.0 -0.4 -1.1: 850.8 -1.0 -5.9: 281.6 1.4 16.4: 302.3 1.3 15.4
Oct 07 1,157.5 -0.9 -2.0: 859.1 -1.7 -5.4: 277.7 0.9 9.6: 298.5 1.4 9.3
Sep 07 1,168.3 0.3 -0.3: 874.1 -0.2 -4.9: 275.3 2.3 16.3: 294.2 1.7 16.3
Aug 07 1,165.3 0.4 -1.8: 875.9 0.2 -6.1: 269.2 0.7 13.6: 289.4 1.0 14.0
Jul 07 1,161.1 -0.8 -3.3: 874.4 -1.2 -6.0: 267.4 0.5 6.0: 286.7 0.4 6.2
Jun 07 1,170.5 -0.1 -3.2: 885.0 -0.4 -5.6: 265.9 0.3 4.4: 285.5 0.5 4.9
May 07 1,172.1 0.5 -3.1: 888.1 0.0 -7.0: 265.0 1.8 11.2: 284.1 2.1 11.1
Apr 07 1,166.2 0.2 -4.0: 888.0 0.1 -6.4: 260.3 0.8 5.2: 278.1 0.5 4.6
Mar 07 1,163.6 0.1 -4.0: 886.8 -0.3 -6.5: 258.4 1.8 6.0: 276.8 1.6 5.0
Feb 07 1,162.2 0.2 -3.1: 889.7 0.6 -5.4: 253.8 -0.8 5.8: 272.5 -1.2 5.0
Jan 07 1,160.2 -0.6 -2.9: 884.4 -1.4 -5.8: 255.9 2.0 8.5: 275.9 1.9 8.1
Dec 06 1,167.3 0.1 -0.3: 896.6 -0.9 -2.2: 250.8 3.6 6.5: 270.6 3.3 6.4
Nov 06 1,166.3 -1.3 -1.4: 904.5 -0.4 -2.9: 242.0 -4.5 3.6: 261.9 -4.1 4.0
Oct 06 1,181.4 0.8 0.8: 908.3 -1.2 -1.7: 253.4 7.1 10.4: 273.1 7.9 9.9
Sep 06 1,172.1 -1.2 0.9: 919.0 -1.4 0.2: 236.7 -0.2 4.1: 253.1 -0.3 3.4
Aug 06 1,186.3 -1.2 3.1: 932.4 0.2 3.3: 237.0 -6.0 3.3: 253.9 -5.9 2.6
Jul 06 1,200.2 -0.7 8.4: 930.3 -0.7 3.9: 252.2 -1.0 10.8: 270.0 -0.8 9.8
Jun 06 1,209.2 -0.1 6.1: 937.2 -1.8 5.1: 254.8 6.9 10.7: 272.1 6.4 9.5
May 06 1,210.0 -0.4 6.4: 954.4 0.6 7.0: 238.3 -3.7 3.9: 255.6 -3.9 4.1
Apr 06 1,214.4 0.2 10.2: 948.5 0.0 10.4: 247.6 1.6 9.4: 266.0 0.9 9.6
Mar 06 1,212.4 1.0 9.6: 948.7 0.9 9.8: 243.8 1.6 8.4: 263.7 1.6 8.8
Feb 06 1,199.9 0.4 8.7: 940.3 0.1 5.9: 240.0 1.8 7.8: 259.5 1.7 8.1
Jan 06 1,194.5 2.0 10.2: 939.3 2.5 14.7: 235.8 0.1 10.7: 255.2 0.4 10.8
Dec 05 1,171.0 -1.0 9.1: 916.8 -1.6 9.2: 235.6 0.9 9.4: 254.3 1.0 8.8
Nov 05 1,183.1 0.9 11.3: 931.3 0.8 12.5: 233.5 1.7 7.7: 251.7 1.3 6.9
Oct 05 1,172.6 0.9 11.8: 924.0 0.7 12.5: 229.6 1.0 8.4: 248.5 1.6 9.3
Sep 05 1,162.1 1.0 10.8: 917.3 1.6 11.8: 227.3 -0.9 8.4: 244.7 -1.2 7.3
Aug 05 1,150.3 3.8 10.1: 902.7 0.8 10.7: 229.4 0.8 8.9: 247.6 0.7 8.1
Jul 05 1,107.7 -2.8 6.8: 895.5 0.4 11.5: 227.7 -1.1 5.5: 245.8 -1.1 5.0
Jun 05 1,139.9 0.2 11.4: 891.5 0.0 12.8: 230.2 0.4 7.2: 248.4 1.2 6.8
May 05 1,137.5 3.2 11.6: 891.9 3.8 13.1: 229.4 1.3 8.5: 245.6 1.2 6.6
Apr 05 1,102.1 -0.4 9.0: 859.4 -0.5 10.2: 226.4 0.7 6.6: 242.7 0.1 4.9
Mar 05 1,106.4 0.3 10.8: 864.1 -2.7 12.3: 224.9 1.0 6.3: 242.3 0.9 5.6
Feb 05 1,103.6 1.8 14.3: 887.9 8.4 18.5: 222.6 4.6 11.2: 240.1 4.2 11.0
Jan 05 1,083.7 1.0 12.2: 819.1 -2.5 9.6: 212.9 -1.1 5.6: 230.4 -1.4 5.2
Dec 04 1,073.5 1.0 9.2: 839.8 1.4 9.8: 215.4 -0.6 6.7: 233.7 -0.8 7.0
Nov 04 1,063.4 1.4 11.6: 827.8 0.8 13.5: 216.7 2.3 4.8: 235.5 3.6 5.3
Oct 04 1,048.5 0.0 9.9: 821.1 0.1 13.2: 211.9 1.0 1.1: 227.4 -0.2 -0.4
Sep 04 1,048.7 0.4 11.6: 820.7 0.7 15.4: 209.7 -0.5 0.1: 228.0 -0.5 0.0
Aug 04 1,044.4 0.7 11.3: 815.3 1.5 14.8: 210.7 -2.4 0.6: 229.1 -2.1 0.4
Jul 04 1,037.5 1.4 11.6: 803.5 1.7 14.2: 215.8 0.4 3.8: 234.0 0.6 3.6
Jun 04 1,022.9 0.4 11.5: 790.4 0.2 14.3: 214.9 1.6 3.6: 232.5 0.9 2.8
May 04 1,019.1 0.8 12.8: 788.7 1.2 15.7: 211.4 -0.5 4.2: 230.4 -0.4 3.9
Apr 04 1,010.9 1.2 13.1: 779.6 1.3 15.4: 212.4 0.5 6.1: 231.3 0.8 5.8
Mar 04 998.8 3.4 12.8: 769.3 2.6 14.8: 211.5 5.7 6.1: 229.5 6.1 6.3
Feb 04 965.9 0.0 8.2: 749.6 0.3 11.7: 200.1 -0.8 -1.8: 216.3 -1.3 -2.3
Jan 04 966.2 -1.7 7.9: 747.1 -2.3 11.1: 201.7 -0.1 -2.0: 219.0 0.3 -1.9
Dec 03 983.1 3.1 9.8: 764.7 4.8 14.2: 201.8 -2.4 -2.9: 218.3 -2.4 -3.2
Nov 03 953.2 -0.1 7.4: 729.5 0.5 9.2: 206.7 -1.4 2.1: 223.8 -2.0 2.1
Oct 03 953.9 1.6 7.6: 725.5 2.0 8.6: 209.7 0.1 4.0: 228.4 0.2 4.7
Sep 03 939.3 0.1 7.5: 711.4 0.1 8.4: 209.5 0.0 3.9: 227.9 -0.1 4.8
Aug 03 938.6 1.0 8.0: 710.4 1.0 8.9: 209.6 0.8 4.4: 228.1 1.0 5.2
Jul 03 929.6 1.3 7.5: 703.7 1.8 8.6: 207.8 0.2 4.3: 225.9 -0.1 4.4
Jun 03 917.6 1.6 5.3: 691.5 1.5 5.4: 207.5 2.3 4.6: 226.1 2.0 5.2
May 03 903.2 1.0 3.1: 681.5 0.9 3.5: 202.9 1.3 1.1: 221.7 1.4 2.0
Apr 03 894.0 0.9 1.8: 675.4 0.8 1.4: 200.2 0.4 2.4: 218.7 1.3 3.4
Mar 03 885.7 -0.8 1.7: 669.9 -0.2 1.4: 199.4 -2.2 3.0: 215.8 -2.6 2.6
Feb 03 892.6 -0.3 2.1: 671.1 -0.2 2.8: 203.8 -1.0 -0.3: 221.4 -0.8 -0.2
Jan 03 895.5 0.0 2.9: 672.3 0.4 3.4: 205.9 -1.0 1.0: 223.2 -1.1 1.5
Dec 02 895.4 0.9 2.5: 669.8 0.2 1.2: 207.9 2.7 5.8: 225.7 3.0 6.6
Nov 02 887.4 0.1 2.1: 668.3 0.0 1.5: 202.4 0.3 2.8: 219.1 0.5 3.9
Oct 02 886.4 1.4 2.2: 668.2 1.8 1.7: 201.7 0.0 3.8: 218.1 0.3 3.9
Sep 02 874.0 0.5 0.7: 656.5 0.6 -1.3: 201.7 0.4 7.8: 217.5 0.3 7.4
Aug 02 869.2 0.5 -0.9: 652.3 0.6 -2.7: 200.8 0.8 4.9: 216.9 0.2 5.1
Jul 02 864.5 -0.8 -2.7: 648.1 -1.2 -4.6: 199.3 0.5 2.3: 216.4 0.7 3.4
Jun 02 871.2 -0.6 -1.6: 656.3 -0.4 -2.7: 198.3 -1.2 1.4: 214.9 -1.2 2.0
May 02 876.1 -0.2 0.0: 658.7 -1.1 -0.9: 200.7 2.7 2.1: 217.4 2.8 2.7
Apr 02 877.8 0.8 1.4: 666.4 0.8 1.1: 195.5 1.0 1.9: 211.5 0.5 2.2
Mar 02 871.1 -0.4 1.3: 660.8 1.2 0.6: 193.6 -5.3 3.0: 210.3 -5.2 3.6
Feb 02 874.5 0.5 4.0: 652.8 0.4 0.8: 204.5 0.3 14.8: 221.8 0.9 14.7
Jan 02 870.0 -0.4 3.5: 650.1 -1.7 0.1: 203.9 3.7 16.2: 219.9 3.9 15.1
Dec 01 873.3 0.5 3.9: 661.6 0.5 1.5: 196.6 -0.1 12.7: 211.6 0.3 12.1
Nov 01 869.1 0.2 2.6: 658.2 0.1 0.0: 196.9 1.3 12.8: 211.0 0.5 11.7
Oct 01 867.3 -0.1 1.9: 657.3 -1.2 -0.4: 194.2 3.9 10.3: 209.9 3.7 9.9
Sep 01 867.9 -1.0 2.3: 665.4 -0.7 1.3: 187.0 -2.2 5.5: 202.5 -1.9 5.8
Aug 01 876.7 -1.3 4.4: 670.3 -1.3 2.8: 191.3 -1.8 10.4: 206.4 -1.4 9.8
Jul 01 888.6 0.4 8.3: 679.3 0.7 6.0: 194.8 -0.4 17.2: 209.3 -0.7 16.7
Jun 01 885.0 1.0 6.9: 674.3 1.5 4.1: 195.5 -0.5 18.0: 210.7 -0.5 17.0
May 01 876.3 1.2 4.8: 664.6 0.8 1.6: 196.5 2.4 16.9: 211.7 2.3 16.6
Apr 01 866.1 0.8 3.8: 659.1 0.4 1.9: 191.9 2.1 10.6: 207.0 2.0 10.3
Mar 01 859.6 2.2 1.9: 656.6 1.4 0.2: 188.0 5.5 8.3: 203.0 5.0 7.6
Feb 01 841.0 0.0 1.9: 647.6 -0.3 -0.2: 178.1 1.6 10.1: 193.4 1.2 9.7
Jan 01 840.8 0.1 3.0: 649.7 -0.3 3.0: 175.4 0.5 2.0: 191.0 1.2 3.0
Dec 00 840.3 -0.8 2.6: 651.6 -1.0 2.4: 174.5 0.0 3.7: 188.7 -0.1 3.2
Nov 00 847.3 -0.4 5.1: 658.4 -0.2 4.7: 174.6 -0.9 7.1: 188.9 -1.1 6.3
Oct 00 850.8 0.3 8.1: 659.7 0.4 7.2: 176.2 -0.6 12.1: 191.0 -0.1 11.2
Sep 00 848.4 1.0 8.8: 657.1 0.8 7.7: 177.3 2.3 13.6: 191.3 1.7 13.1
Aug 00 840.0 2.4 8.8: 652.0 1.7 8.2: 173.3 4.2 11.1: 188.0 4.8 10.9
Jul 00 820.3 -0.9 5.9: 641.0 -1.1 5.9: 166.2 0.4 7.1: 179.4 -0.4 5.7
Jun 00 827.9 -1.0 8.8: 647.8 -1.0 9.0: 165.6 -1.5 8.0: 180.1 -0.8 7.8
May 00 835.9 0.1 11.5: 654.3 1.1 12.2: 168.1 -3.2 9.6: 181.6 -3.2 9.1
Apr 00 834.7 -1.1 11.8: 647.1 -1.3 12.0: 173.6 0.0 12.5: 187.6 -0.5 11.3
Mar 00 843.9 2.3 11.7: 655.3 1.0 11.6: 173.6 7.3 12.5: 188.6 7.0 12.2
Feb 00 825.1 1.1 10.4: 648.9 2.8 12.0: 161.9 -5.9 5.8: 176.3 -5.0 4.7
Jan 00 816.6 -0.3 12.0: 631.1 -0.9 11.0: 171.9 2.1 17.0: 185.5 1.4 15.6
Table Of Data On Factory Orders
Monday, February 4, 2008
Table Of Data On Factory Orders From Commerce
Dollar amounts in billions
Dec Nov Oct
Factory Orders 441.57 431.49 424.15
Percent Change 2.3 1.7 0.7
Factory Orders Ex-Defense 428.53 423.66 413.90
Percent Change 1.2 2.4 0.7
Factory Orders Ex-Trans 370.07 367.33 361.73
Percent Change 0.7 1.5 0.7
Durable Goods Orders 226.11 215.24 214.26
Percent Change 5.0 0.5 -0.5
Non-Durable Goods Orders 215.46 216.25 209.89
Percent Change -0.4 3.0 2.0
Factory Shipments 427.51 428.71 423.12
Percent Change -0.3 1.3 1.2
Factory Inventories 528.10 524.15 520.49
Percent Change 0.8 0.7 0.2
Unfilled Orders 808.66 788.66 779.37
Percent Change 2.5 1.2 1.0
US ups 2009 deficit forecast to 407 bln usd
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The Bush administration's new budget plan anticipates a budget deficit that is nearly double from last year's estimate, and a deficit in the current fiscal year that is more than 50 pct higher than what was expected last summer.
"The primary reason for increasing deficits in the near term is the President's economic growth package and an expected slowing of receipt growth, due to an expected reduction in corporate tax receipts from recent high levels," the administration said in its budget plan released today. "Another reason for increases in the projected near-term deficits is increasing defense and emergency spending."
For fiscal year 2009, which starts this October, the White House expects a 407 bln usd budget deficit, up from the 213 bln usd it anticipated in July. But the White House indicated that this 2009 deficit could go even higher, depending on the need for new funds for anti-terrorism efforts around the world.
"Actual funding needs for 2009 and beyond will be determined by security conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and will continue to be evaluated," the White House said in its budget plan.
For fiscal year 2008, which ends this September, the White House expects a 410 bln usd budget deficit, up sharply from the 258 bln usd deficit it saw last July.
The budget plan sees 3.11 trln usd in spending in fiscal year 2009, the first time the federal budget will have exceeded 3 trln usd. It also sees 2.93 trln usd in spending for the current fiscal year, up 200 bln usd from fiscal year 2007 at a time when it sees federal receipts shrinking by 47 bln usd.
The plan takes into account the roughly 150 bln usd in costs for the economic stimulus package that is close to being approved by Congress, and anticipates that the Bush tax cuts -- soon to expire -- will be made permanent. It also proposes that Americans can invest in their own retirement accounts starting in 2013.
"Taken together, the President's policies are expected to lead to fiscal improvements," the budget said.
But in the meantime, the budget expects larger deficits in the near-term. After fiscal year 2009, the budget sees a 160 bln usd deficit in 2010, and a 95 bln usd deficit in 2011. Together, that's 43 bln usd higher than what was seen last summer.
The budget does not see a return to surpluses until 2012.
The White House also cut back its estimate of the strength of the US economy, as it now expects 2.7 pct GDP growth in 2008. That's down from the 3.0 pct it saw last summer.
It also sees GDP growth of 3.0 pct in 2009, down from the 3.1 pct growth it saw last year.
reasurys higher after Jan. job losses
Friday, February 1, 2008
NEW YORK (AP) - Treasury prices closed higher after a volatile session Friday during which a series of new reports gave a muddled reading of the economy, with the labor force giving up 17,000 jobs last month even as manufacturing rebounded.
"We have competing signals in regard to whether we are in a recession," said T.J. Marta, fixed-income analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "The employment report is recessionary, but the manufacturing data shows expansion. "The market is highly conflicted."
By the afternoon, the market settled into positive territory as investors focused on the contracting labor market. For months, the job market appeared to be holding up although real estate, Wall Street and the mortgage industry were in trouble. But last month's job losses suggest this pillar of the economy may also be losing strength.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 1/32 to 105 11/32 with a yield of 3.57 percent, down from 3.59 percent late Thursday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The 30-year long bond gained 5/32 to 111 10/32 with a yield of 4.32 percent, unchanged from late Thursday.
The 2-year note advanced 5/32 to 100 5/32 with a yield of 2.04 percent, down from 2.10 percent.
At 5:30 p.m. EST, the 10-year yield rose back up to 3.60 percent; the 30-year yield slipped to 4.31 percent; and the 2-year yield was at 2.07 percent.
The yield on the 3-month note rose to 2.158 percent from 1.96 percent late Thursday as the discount rate advanced to 2.09 percent from 1.92 percent.
The Labor Department reported 17,000 jobs were cut from the payrolls in January, with the losses distributed through government, manufacturing, construction, business services and the professions.
The country has not lost jobs since August 2003 and the news came as a jolt as economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR had forecast 70,000 jobs gains for last month.
There was some mitigating news in the report in the form of upward revisions to December and November jobs growth. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent in December but that was due to a shrinking civilian work force.
The news gave some support to Treasurys because investors generally turn to government-backed bonds when they are worried about the economy. It also will be used to build a case that the economy has entered a recession.
On the other hand, the Institute for Supply Management's survey showed a rebound in manufacturing to 50.7 in January from a revised 48.3 in December. All readings above 50 point to an expanding manufacturing sector. The news was especially heartening because many other recent reports have shown a contracting factory sector.
There was limited reaction to other reports. The University of Michigan's final January sentiment reading was 78.4, down from 80.5 at the start of the month. The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 1.1 percent in December, more than the 0.5 percent drop projected by Thomson/IFR.
The jumpy mood in the bond market was compounded by volatility in the stock market, where investors also were absorbed by the complex data stream, as well as by a Microsoft Corp. bid for Yahoo Inc
Survey Of Forecasters-Feb 1
US Economic Indicators: Survey Of Forecasters-Feb 1
Forecasts based on the projections from 20 economists as of Friday,
Feb 1. NA = not available. E = estimate. R = revised. **** = tentative.
Time --Forecast--
Date EST Indicators Median Low High Prev Actual
01/28 :0830: % change : : -0.7 : -8.1
01/28 :1000: Dec S/F Home Sales : 650 610 670: 634R: 604
01/29 :0830: Dec Durable Goods (% chg) : 2.0 -0.5 4.5: 0.5R: 5.2
01/29 :1000: Jan Consumer Confidence : 87.0 84.0 90.0: 90.6R: 87.9
01/30 :0830: Q4 Adv GDP : 1.2 1.0 2.0: 4.9 : 0.6
01/30 :0830: Final Sales Dom Prchsr : NA NA NA : 5.1 : 4.5
01/30 :0830: PCE Defltr : NA NA NA : 2.8 : 2.0
01/30 :0830: Price Defltr : 2.3 1.5 3.2: 1.0 NA
01/31 :0830: Unemploy Clms p/e Jan 26 : 315 315 320: 301 : 375
01/31 :0830: Dec Personal Inc (% chg) : 0.4 0.2 0.4: 0.4 : p.5
01/31 :0830: PCE (% chg) : 0.1 0.0 0.4: 1.0R: 0.2
01/31 :0830: Q4 07 ECI : 0.8 0.8 1.4: 0.8 : 0.8
01/31 :0830: ECI Annual : NA NA NA : 3.3 : 3.3
02/01 :0830: Jan Jobless Rate : 4.9 4.9 5.0: 5.0 : 4.9
02/01 :0830: Jobs (chg) : NA NA NA : 82R: -17
02/01 :0830: Private (chg) : : 54R: 1
02/01 :0830: Manufac (chg) : NA NA NA : -31 : -28
02/01 :0830: Avg Hourly (% chg) : 0.3 0.2 0.6: 0.4 : -0.1
02/01 :1000: Jan ISM : 47.0 46.0 49.0: 47.7 : 50.7
02/01 :1000: Employment : : 48.0 : 47.1
02/01 :1000: Prices : NA NA NA : 68.0 : 76.0
02/01 :1000: Dec Constrcn Spdg(% chg) : -0.5 -1.6 0.3: -0.4R: -1.1
02/04 :1000: Dec Factory Ord (% chg) : 2.6 2.0 4.6: 1.5 :
02/04 :1630: Jan Domestic Vehicle Sales: NA NA NA : :
02/06 :0830: Q4 Pre Productivity : 0.7 -0.4 2.7: 6.7 :
02/06 :0830: Unit Labor Costs : 3.6 1.0 4.8: -2.0 :
02/07 :1500: Dec Consumr Crdt (bln$) : 7.5 4.0 10.0: 15.5 :
02/12 :1400: Jan Treasury Budget Stmt : NA NA NA : 48.3 :
02/13 :0830: Jan Retail Sales (% chg) : NA NA NA : -0.4 :
02/13 :0830: Ex-Auto (% chg) : NA NA NA : -0.4 :
02/13 :1000: Jan Busin Invty (% chg) : NA NA NA : 0.4 :
02/14 :0830: Dec Trade Balance : NA NA NA : -63.1 :
02/14 :0830: Goods Total : NA NA NA : -72.7 :
02/15 :0915: Jan Industl Prod (% chg) : NA NA NA : 0.0 :
02/15 :0915: Capacty Util : NA NA NA : 81.4 :
02/20 :0830: Jan Housing Starts : NA NA NA : 1.006 :
02/20 :0830: % change : : -14.2 :
02/20 :0830: Housing Permits : NA NA NA : 1.068 :
02/20 :0830: Jan CPI (% chg) : NA NA NA : 0.3 :
02/20 :0830: CPI Core (% chg) : NA NA NA : 0.2 :
02/21 :1000: Jan LEI (% chg) : NA NA NA : -0.2 :
02/25 :1000: Jan Existing Home Sales : NA NA NA : 4.89 :
02/25 :1000: % change : : -2.2 :
02/26 :0830: Jan PPI (% chg) : NA NA NA : -0.1 :
02/26 :0830: PPI Core (% chg) : NA NA NA : 0.2 :
02/28 :0830: Q4 Pre Corp Profits : : 0.0 :
-By Kareema Clark; Dow Jones Newswires; 202-646-0237;
csstat@dowjones.com
Related fixed stories:
84698 US Economic Indicators: Latest 6 months data
80055-57 US Economic Calendar
Business Events for the Coming Week
(AP) - Major business events and economic events scheduled for the coming week (some dates are tentative):
MONDAY, Feb. 4
WASHINGTON -- Commerce Department reports on factory orders for December, 10 a.m.; Treasury bill auction; President Bush's 2009 budget proposal expected to be released.
THE WOODLANDS, Texas -- Anadarko Petroleum Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
DECATUR, Ill. -- Archer Daniels Midland Co. releases second-quarter financial results.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Humana Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
NEW YORK -- News Corp. releases second-quarter financial results.
DUBLIN, Ohio -- Wendy's International Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Yum Brands Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
PARIS -- French Finance Ministry submits a report on the Societe Generale trading scandal in which more than $73 billion was bet by rogue trader Jerome Kerviel. Investigating judges have filed preliminary charges against Kerviel for forgery, breach of trust and unauthorized computer activity.
TUESDAY, Feb. 5
NEW YORK -- The Institute for Supply Management releases its service sector index, 10 a.m.
NEW YORK -- Avon Products Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
NATICK, Mass. -- Boston Scientific Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
CHICAGO -- Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Duke Energy Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
NEW YORK -- NYSE Euronext Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
PEMBROKE, Bermuda -- Tyco International Ltd. releases first-quarter financial results.
BURBANK, Calif. -- Walt Disney Co. releases first-quarter financial results.
BENTON HARBOR, Mich. -- Whirlpool Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
WEDNESDAY, Feb. 6
WASHINGTON -- Labor Department reports on productivity and costs, fourth quarter, preliminary, 8:30 a.m.
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. -- Biogen Idec Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
PHILADELPHIA -- Cigna Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Cisco Systems Inc. releases second-quarter financial results.
PLANO, Texas -- Electronic Data Systems Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
NEW YORK -- IAC/InterActiveCorp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- McClatchy Co. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
NEW YORK -- MetLife Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
LOS ANGELES -- Napster Inc. releases third-quarter financial results.
NEWARK, N.J. -- Prudential Financial Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
CHICAGO -- Sara Lee Corp. releases second-quarter financial results.
WALTHAM, Mass. -- Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
NEW YORK -- Time Warner Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
NEW YORK -- Warner Music Group Corp. releases first-quarter financial results.
THURSDAY, Feb. 7
WASHINGTON -- Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m.; Federal Reserve reports on consumer credit for December, 3 p.m.; Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reports on mortgage rates.
The nation's retailers release their sales results for January.
HARTFORD, Conn. -- Aetna Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
CHICAGO -- Aon Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- AutoNation Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
FORT WORTH, Texas -- D.R. Horton Inc. releases first-quarter financial results.
MEMPHIS, Tenn. -- International Paper Co. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
PURCHASE, N.Y. -- PepsiCo Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. -- Reynolds American Inc. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
STAMFORD, Conn. -- Thomson Corp. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
FRIDAY, Feb. 8
FEDERAL WAY, Wash. -- Weyerhaeuser Co. releases fourth-quarter financial results.
Dollar rises against euro, pound
NEW YORK (AP) - The U.S. dollar rose Friday against the euro and the British pound, helped by rising stock prices and a modest expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector despite a weak report on jobs.
In late New York trading, the dollar rose to $1.4803 per euro from $1.4877 per euro late Thursday. The dollar jumped to $1.9677 per British pound from $1.9900 per pound.
The dollar also inched up to 106.47 Japanese yen from 106.43 yen.
The dollar rebounded after an industry group reported U.S. manufacturing activity rose in January and helped galvanize Wall Street. The Institute for Supply Management said Friday its index of manufacturing activity rose to 50.7 from 48.4 in December. Wall Street had expected the figure would come in at 47, which would have indicated a contraction of the manufacturing sector.
The single European currency failed to reach a new high after the Labor Department reported earlier Friday that employers cut 17,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate dipped to 4.9 percent from 5 percent. That sent a signal to currency investors that the euro may not have the legs to go much higher. It had risen nearly 6 U.S. cents since Jan. 22.
Once the euro fell below a previous technical resistance level around $1.4920, investors who were betting on more euro strength decided to give up their positions before the weekend, Carl Forcheski, vice president of foreign exchange at Societe Generale in New York, told Dow Jones Newswires.
The dollar sank to a record low of 1.0734 Swiss francs after the jobs report, according to Dow Jones' Interbank foreign-exchange rates, but recovered to 1.0888 Swiss francs by late afternoon in New York, above 1.0823 Thursday.
Worries about U.S. bond insurers, continuing fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis and a string of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have kept the dollar down.
The Fed lowered its benchmark rate to 3 percent on Wednesday, its second cut in eight days, putting it well below the euro zone rate of 4 percent and Britain's 5.5 percent.
Lower rates can help jump-start a country's economy, but at the same time weaken a currency as traders transfer funds to assets where they can earn higher returns.
In other New York trading, the dollar fell to 99.38 Canadian cents from 1.0040 Canadian dollars
US Slowdown Will Affect Rest Of World
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
PARIS -(Dow Jones)- The economic slowdown in the U.S. will affect the rest of the world, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Tuesday.
Testifying before the Senate Finance Commission about the banking crisis that has provoked a credit crunch and rocked global financial markets, Lagarde pointed out, however, that the effect on France will be attenuated to some degree because only 8% of its trade is with the U.S.
"I don't doubt that the slowdown that we can't avoid seeing in the U.S.... will affect all world economies to some degree or another as they are closely related," Lagarde said.
She said she's "realistic" that the French economy is in a sound position to weather the storm, noting high levels of job creation, better levels of household and business confidence in Europe than in the U.S., and much lower levels of household debt.
"If the German economy suffered, it would affect us to an infinitely greater degree than the U.S. is affecting us, all other things being equal," she said.
"Economic activity in the months and years to come will be very probably driven more by the South East Asian economies such as China, India, and to a lesser degree by Indonesia and the Middle East economies," that are growing at annual rate of more than 6%, she said.
Labels: english, Financial, market event, news, US Economic Data
Lending windows still open
NEW YORK (AP) - If recessions could have a sound, it would be the slam! of lending windows shutting at banks. No wonder: when businesses and consumers have trouble borrowing money, economic growth may grind to a halt.
Whether that is happening now is one of the more interesting questions we face in judging just how much the mortgage and credit crisis is harming the overall economy.
The Federal Reserve cited a slowdown in lending as one of they key reasons for last week's emergency rate cut. But figures from an influential survey of small businesses seems to argue the opposite, as does the rush by homeowners to refinance their mortgages.
It's natural for banks to be somewhat gun shy about lending after the massive losses they've incurred on subprime mortgages and other structured assets. What once seemed like safe loans and investments have suddenly turned bad, and are now severely crimping bank capital.
What's not really clear is how extreme the situation has become. Different pieces of lending data present different views -- so the glass can easily look half empty or half full.
For instance, the closely watched quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey from the Fed only tells you if bank loan officers think the terms and conditions of credit are getting tighter or looser since the last survey. Its findings are based on anecdotes; there are no quantifiable levels.
The most recent survey of 52 domestic banks found there was an increasingly cautious lending environment from July through September of last year. Fourth-quarter results will be out next month.
Nearly a fifth of the respondents -- more than double the number in the second quarter -- had said they tightened lending standards on commercial and industrial loans to companies with sales over $50 million. About a quarter of domestic banks tightened lending standards on consumer loans other than credit cards, up from about 10 percent in the previous quarterly survey.
But while that survey indicates banks have clamped down on lending, most small businesses haven't seen much tighter borrowing conditions.
The National Federation of Independent Business said 32 percent of its 670 respondents in its December survey reported all their credit needs were met, while 7 percent said they were not, up slightly from the 4 percent of respondents in November.
Thirty-four percent of respondents were regular borrowers, having gotten a loan in the previous three months. That was up 2 percentage points from November.
Eight percent of owners said it was harder to get a loan, while one percent said it was easier, typical of readings for the past several years. Only 4 percent of the owners cited the cost and availability of credit as their No. 1 business problem.
"There is nothing happening on Main Street," said William Dunkelberg, chief economist at the Washington-based NFIB. "We have no evidence that credit is really a significant problem."
That view is echoed by the recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which said refinancings for the week ended Jan. 18 reached their highest since April, 2004. The trade group's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, rose 8.3 percent from the previous week's level.
While it's true that some of those applicants may be turned down, the upbeat view from small businesses and at least some homeowners argue against the market perception that credit woes are upon us. Economists say those metrics should be closely watched to see if any cracks begin to appear.
"If credit markets stay dysfunctional for the next six months, and banks keep losing capital, then there could truly be a credit crunch," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who is now a senior analyst with the Stanford Financial Group in Washington.
What we don't want to see is a repeat of the 1990-1991 recession when some banks became so risk averse that they all but stopped lending, especially to fund commercial real estate, which had been the root cause of that economic pullback.
Instead, the banks chose to borrow from one another at the fed funds rate, and then used that cash to buy higher-yielding Treasury securities. They could produce profit without the worry of rising defaults.
"That's the last way we want banks to make money today. We want them to be willing to lend to people who will use it because that helps the economy," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.
There is a long way to go until that scenario could play out. Right now, the fed funds rate stands at 3.5 percent while the 2-year Treasury note is around 2.2 percent -- so there isn't any money to be made in that dealing.
That means banks can't stop issuing loans. The evidence suggests they aren't.
Oil continues lower below 90 usd mark on economic slowdown fears
Monday, January 28, 2008
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil prices continued to trade down below the 90 usd mark heading into the afternoon in London, as lower stock markets again sparked fears of an economic slowdown denting demand for crude.
"Financial markets in Europe and Asia fell lower following comments by Goldman Sachs who said the Japanese economy has probably fallen into a recession already," said Nimit Khamar at Sucden. "The economic problems in the US and Japan will be a major concern for the oil market given that they are 2 of the 3 largest consumers of oil".
At 12.48 pm, New York's WTI crude for March delivery was down 1.34 usd at 89.37 usd per barrel.
In London, Brent crude for March delivery was down 1.04 usd at 89.86 usd per barrel.
Prices have declined by over 10 pct since hitting an all time record high above 100 usd a barrel in the early days of the New Year. While weakness in stock markets has weighed on the demand outlook, it has also forced the liquidation of many long speculative positions in crude, as funds scramble to cover losses on falling equities.
"According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission the speculative net long position fell by 56 pct from the week before, which is a concern for those oil bulls as hedge fund money has been a key driver to prices surging so high," said Khamar at Sucden.
Oil has tracked volatile equity markets in recent weeks but some predict that the focus is soon to turn to OPEC's meeting on Friday, where the cartel is widely expected to leave production unchanged. All 27 analysts polled by Thomson Financial News expect OPEC ministers to decide against an output increase.
OPEC ministers have consistently argued that oil's rally up to the 100 usd mark was fuelled more by speculators in the market rather any tightness of supply, reducing the likelihood the cartel will up production, according to Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris.
"As the stock markets have fallen, margin calls and flight to liquidity have seen long oil positions unwound. This adds substance to the long held view by OPEC that the price appreciation has much to do with speculation rather than supply constraints. The probability is that there will be no change in production quotas."
With real concerns over the state of the economic outlook still dominating moves in oil, some market watchers have started to flag the slight possibility of an OPEC production cut.
"Some (OPEC ministers) are already talking about a cut, and we are sure that Venezuela and Iran will be leading the charge," said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover.
"OPEC usually cuts output in March or April and global demand typically does make its low in those two months. If one throws in a risk of recession, the argument is complete".
Weakness in the US dollar has seen many OPEC members become more hawkish on price, as oil revenues and currency reserves have taken a blow, analysts said.
The risk to the cartel is that another spike in oil prices back towards the 100 usd mark could tip struggling economies into recession, ultimately denting demand for crude and encouraging further investment into alternative fuel sources.
While prices have retreated from their record highs, they still remain at historically elevated levels. Before September of last year, prices had never closed above the 80 usd mark.
US Dec Building Permits Revised To -7.1%
US Dec Building Permits Revised To -7.1% From -8.1%
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. building permits for December were revised to down 7.1% from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.080 million, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
December building permits were originally reported as being down 8.1% at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.068 million.
Building permits are a precursor of building activity.
New Home Sales
WASHINGTON (AP) - Government data released Monday is forecast to show new home sales dropped slightly in December.
The Commerce Department is expected to report that new home sales dipped 0.3 percent in December from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 645,000 units, according to the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
The report is scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. EST. If the results meet analysts' expectations, they will be 36.7 percent below year-ago levels.
A month ago, the government reported new home sales plummeted 9 percent in November from October to a rate of 647,000 units, or 34.4 percent below-year ago levels.
Many builders such as Centex Corp., Pulte Homes Inc. and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. were caught with a glut of unsold properties this year when mortgages became hard to get and sales slowed. Builders have slashed prices, but many buyers have stayed on the sidelines because they're having trouble getting mortgages and believe prices will continue to fall.
Sales of existing single-family homes plunged in 2007 by the largest amount in 25 years, and median prices fell for the first time in at least four decades, the National Association of Realtors said last week.
Miami-based Lennar Corp. last Thursday reported a fourth-quarter loss of $1.25 billion, and a $1.9 billion loss for all of 2007. "We are not expecting market conditions to improve, and perhaps might continue to decline in the near term," Lennar President and Chief Executive Stuart Miller said.
Nevertheless, shares of major U.S. homebuilders rallied last week, on hopes that the Federal Reserve's rate cut and an economic stimulus package could boost the flagging industry.
US existing home sales down 2.2 pct in December
Thursday, January 24, 2008
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - Existing home sales in the US fell dramatically in December, and left 2007 as the worst year on record for US home sales and prices in almost four decades.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said existing home sales were down 2.2 pct in December to a 4.89 mln unit annual rate. For all of 2007 they fell 12.8 pct to 5.65 mln units. Economists were predicting a 4.95 mln unit annual sales rate for December.
The NAR also reported that 2007 had the first ever annual decline in the median price of existing homes since it began tracking the data combining condo and single-family home sales in 1998 -- down 1.4 pct to 218,900 usd.
For single family homes exclusively, it was the first annual price decline since 1968, down 1.8 pct to 217,800 usd. Single family sales for the year fell 13 pct, their worst performance in 25 years.
In just the month of December, single-family sales were off 2 pct to a 4.31 mln unit rate, with a 6.5 pct year-over-year price decline to 206,500 usd.
"Every region posted a relatively modest drop, indicating the problems are still widespread," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisers. Sales were down 4.6 pct in the Northeast, 2.1 pct in the West, 1.7 pct in the Midwest and down 1.0 pct in the South.
On today's data, the NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun noted that sales had at least been in the 5 mln annual unit range for the last four months, "which may be hinting we're at a bottom," although it "may be too early to say," as well.
Michael Moran of Daiwa Securities wouldn't go that far, but "the results of the past few months, in total, show a noticeable slowing in the rate of decline," he said. "This does not necessarily suggest that a bottom is forming in the market. Nevertheless, the recent data suggest some improvement in the tone of the market. Sales plummeted in 2006 and much of 2007, but the recent adjustment has been subdued by comparison."
The backlog of unsold homes at the end of December had fallen 7.4 pct to a 9.6 months supply after three months in a row above 10. That's "good news from the inventory front," according to Jennifer Lee of BMO Capital Markets. "Don't get me wrong, she said, "this is a still-high read but an improvement nonetheless. The number of homes available for sale fell to 3.32 mln, still well above the 25-year average of just over 2.2 mln but down from July's peak of 3.83 mln units."
Economists have said the home sales aren't likely to begin a recovery until the supply overhang drops sufficiently that potential buyers stop waiting for prices to fall further.
Tony Crescenzi of Miller Tabak does see some progress on the inventory overhang of both new and used homes. He points out that the total number of new dwellings being added annually has dropped to a net of about 700,000 as builders cut back. But, "the amount of new dwellings needed each year is roughly 1.1 or 1.2 mln because of increases in household formation related to population growth.
"This means that the amount of new construction is running about 400-500,000 below the level of household formation, an amount that will take a significant bite out of the level of excess inventories" -- eventually.
RBS Greenwich Capital's Stephen Stanley expects the decline in home sales to last through the winter, "but we continue to believe that a bottom will be found in the spring. Still, instead of a sharp rebound, as is typical after housing cycle bottoms, we foresee resales dragging along the bottom for an extended period, as the sector continues to work out its pricing and inventory issues."
US Economic Indicators: Latest 6 Months Data-
US Economic Indicators: Latest 6 Months Data-Jan 24
Forecasts based on the projections from 20 economists as of Friday,
Jan 18. NA = not available. E = estimate. R = revised. **** = tentative.
--Forecast--
Date Indicators :Median : Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul
01/24 Unemply Clms : 320:[1/19 301 [1/12 R 302R ] [1/5 322]
01/24 Exist Hm Sls : 4.98: 4.89 5.00 4.98 5.03 5.48 5.75
01/24 % change : : -2.2 0.4 -1.0 -8.2 -4.7 -0.2
01/25 % change : : -1.5 -7.2 -4.6 -4.8 -1.7
01/28 S/F Home Sls : NA : 647 711 699R 701R 796
01/28 % change : : -9.0 1.7 -0.3R -11.9R -0.1
01/29 Durable Gds : : 214.7 214.5 215.3 218.4 230.5
01/29 % change : NA : 0.1 -0.4 -1.4 -5.3 5.9
01/29 NonDef Captl: : 75.9 73.0 74.9R 71.4 81.1
01/29 % change : : 3.8 -2.5 4.9R -12.0 4.8
01/29 Cnsmr Confid : NA : 88.6 87.8 95.2 99.5 105.6 111.9
01/30 GDP Annual % : NA :[Q4 07 4.9R [Q3 07 2.9R ][Q2 07 3.8]
01/30 Final Sales%: NA :[Q4 07 5.1R [Q3 07 4.9R ][Q2 07 6.3]
01/30 PCE Defltr % NA :[Q4 07 2.8R [Q3 07 2.7R ][Q2 07 1.4]
01/30 Prc Defltr %: NA :[Q4 07 1.0R [Q3 07 0.9R ][Q2 07 2.6]
01/30 Chnd Wt Prc%: :[Q4 07 1.0R [Q3 07 0.9R ][Q2 07 2.7]
01/31 Personal Inc : : 11,868 11,825 11,800R 11,747R 11,693R
01/31 % change : NA : 0.4 0.2 0.5R 0.5R 0.6
01/31 PCE : : 9,982 9,871 9,832R 9,783R 9,742R
01/31 % change : NA : 1.1 0.4 0.5R 0.4 0.4
01/31 ECI : NA :[Q3 07 0.8 [Q2 07 0.9][Q1 07 0.8]
01/31 ECI Annual : NA :[Q3 07 3.3 [Q2 07 3.3][Q1 07 3.5]
02/01 Jobless Rate : NA : 5.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6
02/01 Jobs (chg) : NA : 18 115 159 44 93 93
02/01 Pvt (chg) : : -13 87 132 37 30 117
02/01 Manuf(chg): NA : -31 -13 -23 -15 -45 -4
02/01 Factory hrs : : 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2
02/01 Avg Hr % chg: NA : 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
02/01 ISM : NA : 47.7 50.8 50.9 52.0 52.9 53.8
02/01 Employment : : 48.0 47.8 52.0 51.7 51.3 50.2
02/01 Prices : NA : 68.0 67.5 63.0 59.0 63.0 65.0
02/01 Constrcn Spd : : 1165.1 1163.6 1168.3R 1165.3 1161.1
02/01 % change : NA : 0.1 -0.4 0.3R 0.4 -0.8
02/04 Factory Ords : : 430.3 424.1 421.2 420.1 435.1
02/04 % change : NA : 1.5 0.7 0.3 -3.5 3.4
02/04 Unfill Order: : 786.8 779.4 771.8 763.1 754.3
02/04 % change : : 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.3
02/04 Dom Auto Sls : NA : 12.4 12.5 12.6 11.7
02/06 Prod & Costs%: NA :[Q3 06 6.7R [Q2 06 3.6][Q1 06 0.2]
02/06 Unit Labor%: NA :[Q3 06 -2.0R [Q2 06 -1.1R ][Q1 06 5.3]
02/07 Consumr Crdt : : 2505.4 2489.9 2487.9R 2482.4 2462.9
02/07 change : NA : 15.5 2.0 5.5R 19.5 15.1
02/08 Wholesale Inv: : 406.2 403.8 403.9 401.4 398.7
02/08 % change : : 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2
02/08 Invty-Sales: : 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.11
02/12 Trsy Budget : NA : 48.3 -98.2 -55.6 111.6 -117.0 -36.4R
02/13 Retail Sales : : 382.9 384.3 380.3 380.2 377.2 376.9
02/13 % change : NA : -0.4 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.6
02/13 Ex-Auto : : 305.8 306.9 301.8 301.3 299.4 301.6
02/13 % change : NA : -0.4 1.7 0.2 0.6 -0.8 0.7
02/13 Busin Invty : : 1,437 1,437 1,431 1,429 1,423 1,419
02/13 % change : NA : 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5
02/13 % mfg chg : : 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.6 -1.7 2.3
02/14 Trade Balnce : NA : -63.1 -57.8 -57.1 -57.0 -59.1
02/14 Goods Balnce: NA : -72.7 -66.9 -65.8 -66.1 -67.8
02/14 Imports : : 205.4 499.4 197.5 196.2 197.1
02/14 Exports : : 142.3 141.7 140.4 139.3 138.1
02/15 Industl Prod : : 114.0 114.0 113.7 114.2R 114.1 114.2
02/15 % change : NA : 0.0 3.0 -0.5 0.1R -0.1 0.6
02/15 Capacty Util: NA : 81.4 81.6 81.4 81.9R 82.0 82.2
02/20 Hsg Starts : NA : 1.006 1.173 1.274 1.182 1.347 1.371
02/20 % change : : -14.2 -7.9 7.8 -12.2 -1.8 -6.6
02/20 Permits : NA : 1.068 1.162 1.170 1.261 1.322 1.389
02/20 CPI : : 210.0 210.2 208.9 208.5 207.9 208.3
02/20 % change : NA : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1
02/20 % 12-mo chg: : 4.1 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.0 2.4
02/20 CPI Core : : 212.4 212.4 212.3 211.6 211.1 210.8
02/20 % change : NA : 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
02/20 Real Earnings: : 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.5 -0.1
02/21 LEI : NA : 136.5 136.8 137.3 138.2R 137.9R 138.3R
02/21 % change : NA : -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 0.2R -0.3R 0.5R
02/26 PPI : : 170.6 171.3 168.6 167.4 165.8 168.2
02/26 % change : NA : -0.1 3.2 0.1 1.1 -1.4 0.6
02/26 % 12-mo chg: : 6.3 7.2 6.1 4.4 2.2 3.8
02/26 PPI Core : : 163.5 163.5 163.0 161.5 161.4 161.2
02/26 % change : NA : 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
02/28 Corp Profit%: :[Q4 07 0.0 [Q3 07 0.0][Q2 07 5.2]
03/17 Current Acct : :[Q3 07 -$178.5 [Q2 07 R 188.9R ][Q1 07 -$197.1]
-By Rodney Christian; Dow Jones Newswires; 202-646-1880;
csstat@dowjones.com
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